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全球核武器

核武器仍然存在——它们仍然是一种生存风险.

目录表

核武器仍然存在——它们仍然是一种生存风险.

9个国家拥有核武器:美国, 俄罗斯, 法国, 中国, 英国, 巴基斯坦, 印度, 以色列, 和朝鲜. 全球核武库总计接近1.3万件. 虽然这个数字比冷战时期要低,当时大约有60个,000 weapons worldwide—it does not alter the fundamental threat to humanity these weapons represent.

例如,上面的弹头 一个 US nuclear-armed submarine have seven times the destructive power of all the bombs dropped during World War II, 包括投在日本的两颗原子弹. 美国通常在海上有10艘这样的潜艇.

此外, 包括美国在内的几乎所有主要核大国, 俄罗斯, 和中国现在都在显著增加其核武库的规模, 能力, 或两个. 这种日益增长的新军备竞赛正在增加核战争的风险.

美国

美国的武器库大约有5枚,400枚核武器, 1,其中744架已部署并准备交付. 的 weapons are kept in submarines and 80-foot-deep missile silos across five of the Great Plains states. 还有一些储存在空军基地,可以装载到远程轰炸机上. 100枚美国炸弹部署在5个欧洲国家的空军基地.

部署的武器中大约有一半仍在使用 毛发触发警报,能够在a后很快发射 总统命令. 这些警戒部队包括几乎所有的400枚发射井导弹 洲际弹道导弹(icbm), and a comparable number of warheads on submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). ICBMs can be launched within a couple minutes; SLBMs within 15 minutes.

破坏性的能力 美国武器的范围很广. 的 most powerful weapon—the B83 gravity bomb—is more than 80 times stronger than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. 最小的武器的爆炸当量只有它的2%. 这种“低当量”武器是专门设计用来提高易用性的, 增加了它们实际被使用的可能性.

俄罗斯

俄罗斯军火库中有6枚核弹,000枚核弹头, 1,584 of which are deployed; combined with the 美国, 这占了超过 90% 全世界的核武器. Antagonism between the 美国 and 俄罗斯 goes a long way in explaining the slow pace of nuclear weapons reductions.

While the two nations have agreed to extend their only remaining bilateral arms control treaty, 被称为“新START”,” treaty implementation is currently suspended and is unlikely to resume until there is some resolution to 俄罗斯’s 乌克兰战争. 俄罗斯 has also recently moved forward with deratification of the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty, 试图“模仿”美国, 哪个国家在1996年签署了该条约,但没有批准. 俄罗斯 has also previously made it clear that it will only make further nuclear reductions if 美国导弹防御系统 也受到法律约束.

While 俄罗斯 has said it will not resume explosive testing unless the 美国 does, uncertainty around the global commitment against nuclear testing increases the danger of a new arms race.

中国

中国 developed nuclear weapons during the Cold War and has since maintained a relatively modest arsenal. 然而, 核力量的三条腿, 也被称为核三位一体, 是否正在被加强和扩大 , spearheaded by the construction of three Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) silo fields in three Northwestern 中国 locations.

的 exact size of 中国’s arsenal is unclear; scientists estimate it at approximately 410, 而五角大楼声称已经达到500人,并将继续增长. 因为它的大小适中, 中国对自己的武器库保持模棱两可的态度, 过去,美国的估计也曾数次出错. Just over a hundred of these warheads are assigned to missiles that could reach the 美国.

与俄罗斯和美国不同的是,中国没有继续部署导弹 一触即发的紧张. 在和平时期,大多数弹头都没有安装在导弹上. 这一姿态是对中国长期坚持的“不首先使用”核政策的补充. 中国’s buildup is not necessarily indicative of a change to a more aggressive nuclear posture. 的 goal is most likely to increase confidence in the arsenal’s survivability in the event of an adversary strike, 这是中国核威慑的长期目标.

中国, 像俄罗斯, is concerned about continued US investment in first strike options and missile defenses. US and Chinese experts have warned these concerns may cause Chinese leaders to increase the quantity and improve the quality of its weapons. 在缺乏外交举措的情况下,中国可能会继续这样做 扩大和改进 核力量.

英国

英国 has an estimated 120 “operationally available” nuclear weapons (warheads that are onboard their submarines or can be loaded fairly quickly). 该国在任何时候都有40人部署. All of these weapons are sea-based and carried by Trident submarine-launched ballistic missiles purchased from the 美国.

Reversing a previous pledge that it would not exceed a maximum of 180 nuclear warheads, the 英国宣布 它的新上限将是260枚弹头,增加了40%以上.

法国

法国拥有大约290枚已部署的核武器. Most of these are based on submarines, with the remainder on air-launched cruise missiles. 法国将其威慑战略视为严格的防御性战略, 但不排除美国率先使用核武器的可能性 "正当自卫的极端情况."

朝鲜

冷战结束后,朝鲜陷入了经济动荡. 不顾一切地寻求外交筹码,渴望得到安全保证, 它的领导人加速了核项目. Attempts by the 美国 to limit 朝鲜’s nuclear and missile programs have ended in broken promises on both sides.

今天, 朝鲜拥有足够制造45到55枚核弹头的核材料, 可能组装了20到30件武器. 它还在继续发展其远程导弹能力, 尽管其能力尚不清楚.

这些发展给东亚带来了新的挑战. 美国 will need to coordinate with its Asian allies and 中国 if it is to resume productive talks with 朝鲜, a task made more difficult by the deterioration of US-中国 relations.

印度

印度拥有大约160枚核武器,而且还在制造更多. Although long-simmering conflicts with 巴基斯坦 have historically been the focus of 印度’s nuclear program, 它也越来越关注与中国的关系. 这使区域局势进一步复杂化, as any moves that 印度 makes to modernize its nuclear weapons in response to 中国 will inevitably threaten 巴基斯坦, 并可能增加军备竞赛的可能性.

巴基斯坦

Analysts believe that 巴基斯坦 has steadily grown its arsenal to 170 nuclear weapons in recent years and is still producing more. 未来其核武库的规模和构成可能在很大程度上取决于印度的行动. 越来越强调短程, “战术”核武器, 然而, 人们担心巴基斯坦可能会降低使用这些武器的门槛.

以色列

以色列不承认拥有核武器, 但人们普遍认为,该国拥有大约100枚核武器. Its arsenal makes other nearby countries more interested in acquiring technology for nuclear energy that could, 如果转移, 允许他们制造核武器.

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